Friday, March 24, 2006

More Bad News for Broadcasters

From Terry and Lost Remote, a Forrester study show even more problems ahead for TV advertising.

From Terry:

"A new study from Forrester predicts that 2007 will be the year that the television industry experiences an actual full-year decline in ad revenues. This conclusion was reached by speaking with 133 major advertisers, people who control over $20 billion in annual ad purchases."

From ClickZ:

"Forrester analyst Josh Bernoff, who authored the study, noted the argument put forth by many in television that increased spending on the Web will come out of marketers' direct marketing budgets, leaving the traditional ad mix relatively unaffected. He said the results of the ANA study do not bear that out.

"I think advertisers are telling us, 'No, that's not how we think of it,'" said Bernoff. "They have a media mix, and it includes TV... and it includes Internet. They're saying they're going to take money out of television and put it into [online] advertising. They're not going to take money out of direct marketing and put it into advertising."

More Terry:

"This tracks with what I hear in my travels and in discussions with those in a position to know. The 30-second spot is headed for the tar pits, and, as I've noted countless times, that's big trouble for broadcasting. But here's the real nut of it all. Revenue isn't the problem for television; audience is the problem. Local broadcasters and networks both would do well to accept that and move forward with strategies to find and engage the people who used to passively participate in our money tree."

From Lost Remote:

"That's no surprise, but here are some estimates: 24 percent of marketers surveyed said they plan to cut their TV budgets by at least a quarter once DVR penetration reaches 30-million households. Meanwhile, 80 percent said they'll spend more in internet advertising, especially paid search."

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